Starmer’s autumn of discontent

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By NOAH KEATE
PRESENTED BY

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Good Sunday afternoon. This is Noah Keate, steering the good ship Sunday Crunch while ace colleague Mason Boycott-Owen has a well-deserved break.
Don’t forget: The latest episode of Politics at Jack and Sam’s drops in your podcast feeds on Monday morning, with POLITICO’s U.K. Editor Jack Blanchard and Sky News’ Deputy Political Editor Sam Coates getting up extra early to preview the day ahead in British politics. Their essential 20-minute guide about what’s happening in Westminster should drop by 7.30 a.m. — perfect timing for the commute.
DUBLIN DIPLOMACY: Prime Minister Keir Starmer spent Saturday doing two of his favorite activities — promising a “reset” in European relations and watching football. Starmer became the first PM to visit Ireland in five years, meeting Taoiseach Simon Harris in Dublin for warm words over a pint of Guinness. Harris promised to put British-Irish relations “on a new path” as the pair pledged annual summits on trade and cooperation, stressing their “most solemn duty” was guaranteeing the Northern Ireland peace process. “We are friends,” they wrote in a joint Irish Times op-ed.
Open goal: The trading started straight away as the leaders swapped football shirts containing their surnames and the number 24 (both men became leaders of their countries this year.) England bounced back from their bruising defeat in the Euro 2024 final to beat Ireland 2-0, with Starmer graciously apologizing to Harris for the score. It’s probably the most fun the PM will have for a while, with a difficult-looking autumn ahead.
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Closer to home: Before that pleasure came business. Starmer did his first major sit-down TV interview in the Cabinet room as Laura Kuenssberg’s BBC One show returned from its summer break. There was plenty to ask him about.
Trouble ahead: One of the looming battles is the vote Tuesday on removing winter fuel payments for all pensioners except those on pension credit, affecting around 10 million people. The move has united opposition parties in, well, opposition, but Starmer made clear frustration even from his own MPs would not prompt a U-turn.
Tough love: The PM recognized the cut might be electorally unpopular but stressed its necessity. “No prime minister wants to take a decision like this,” he said. Starmer also emphasized this year’s state pension increase would offset the fuel payment, an argument MPs will no doubt hear countless times over the days and weeks ahead.
Shaking fists: The weekend papers are bursting with (mostly anonymous) grumblings from Labour MPs, who report widespread anger from constituents about the fuel allowance cut. “We’re getting emails daily. Constituents are deeply unhappy and some are saying they will never vote Labour again,” one MP tells the Sunday Times.
From on high: Indeed, concerns about the consequences go right to the top of government. Saturday’s Guardian included one Cabinet “source” worrying about the fallout of the policy this winter, with colder days and rising energy prices ahead. “We’re going to end up with more old people in hospital or care as a result, with all the costs involved in that,” they said. Katy Balls writes in Saturday’s i that Labour aides are trying to win round MPs by suggesting the “hardship now is needed for things to improve in four years’ time.”
Channeling Thatcher? Opposition to the cut is widespread and has sparked some rare moments of Tory unity. The Sunday Express splashes with leadership contender James Cleverly dubbing the move Labour’s “poll tax moment.”
Sitting on hands: In reality, the rebellion will likely be minimal, given the size of Labour’s majority. Most MPs currently registering their opposition are expected to abstain (like Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield) or hold their nose and back the government. “A lot of MPs will vote for this but they won’t be happy,” one Labour figure told the Sunday Times.
Rebel just for kicks: While the government won’t be pleased about rebels, HuffPost’s Kevin Schofield reckons there are no plans to punish them in the same way as the seven MPs who voted to scrap the two-child benefit cap. However, the seven suspended for six months might not get the whip back in January if they rebel again, the website also reports. When pushed by Laura K, Starmer wouldn’t rule out removing the whip for rebels: “Every Labour MP was elected in on the same mandate as I was.”
Mandarin machinations: The problems Labour face in government aren’t just from politicians, with some in Whitehall less than impressed about Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget plans. One official told the FT “the cuts that the Treasury wants are just not possible” while another said all departments will be asking for more money. Good luck with that!
Gray area: Speaking of familiar themes, the rumblings about Starmer’s chief of staff Sue Gray continue. The Mail on Sunday notes that technically Gray is still in her probation period, which isn’t over until mid-November. Gray is “very uncomfortable” with the briefings against her, Saturday’s Times reported, with one Whitehall “source” saying there are “plans afoot” for Starmer to step in. Quite what he plans to do is another question.
IN SICKNESS AND IN HEALTH: Away from internal No. 10 rows, the state of the NHS will this week be laid bare in a major review by unaffiliated peer Ara Darzi. Extracts in the Sunday papers suggest his report will make for grim reading when it is published on Thursday. “Everybody watching this who has used the NHS, or whose relatives have, knows that it’s broken,” Starmer said on the BBC, adding it was “not beaten” and can still be turned around.
Road to reform: Action is expected to follow. “We’ve got to do the hard yards of reform,” Starmer said.”We’ll start on that journey.” Health Secretary Wes Streeting echoed the remarks on his own Sunday broadcast round, telling LBC’s Lewis Goodall: “If we do not act now to take the right long-term decisions, we’ll end up with the NHS effectively going bust.” Yikes.
Not us, gov: Naturally, Shadow Health Secretary Victoria Atkins rejected the accusation the Tories had broken the NHS. “The NHS is facing long term pressures and struggling with many of them as other healthcare systems are around the world,” she told Sky News’ Trevor Phillips on her Sunday broadcast round.
Life support: A plethora of new statistics shine a light on how acute the situation is. More than 100,000 infants were left waiting for more than six hours in A&E departments last year while around 800,000 children and young people are on NHS waiting lists.
Not prepared: The Observer’s splash highlights how the U.K. was hit far harder by Covid-19 because the NHS had been “seriously weakened” over the preceding decade. Darzi’s report will say Britain reduced its “routine healthcare activity by a far greater percentage than other health systems” with knee replacements falling by 68 percent.
Milling around: The Sunday Times has an intriguing story about former Health Secretary Alan Milburn, who spearheaded reform under the last Labour government, attending meetings with civil servants in the Department of Health and receiving access to sensitive documents despite having no government role.
Nothing to see here: “These are meetings that I convene to look at the NHS reform agenda,” Streeting told GB News’ Camilla Tominey. “I decide who attends and I decide what they see.” Bookmark this. Atkins said she would be writing to the department’s permanent secretary to get some answers.
CLEAR BLUE WATER: Another blue branded institution in a spot of bother is the Conservative Party, as the search for a thrusting new leader continues. Ahead of the second vote of MPs Tuesday, when five candidates become four, Tom Tugendhat was on the BBC battling to make it through to the party conference stage. He finished just three votes ahead of Priti Patel who was knocked out Wednesday.
Echoes of Keir: The shadow security minister didn’t sound dramatically dissimilar to Starmer when he explained standing to “return our party to the service of the British people” and “act on the promises that we make.”
Fixed on Farage: In a subtle dig at the right-wing elements of his party and Reform UK, Tugendhat stated credible promises on immigration were required, “not just shouting at foreigners from the white cliffs and pretending that you can fix migration by withdrawing from a single treaty.” Instead, he spoke about reforming parts of the treaty and leaving if necessary.
Mad as hell: Tugendhat’s frustrations with modern politics are laid bare in a Sunday Telegraph interview, slamming fellow Tory MPs for “playing games” with their votes and condemning the whole political class for “its ego and weakness” as well as lack of integrity and service.
Joining Jenrick: Atkins officially rowed in behind Robert Jenrick, who topped the first ballot, as her choice of leader. She told Sky: “Rob and I can find that common ground and reform” to win back voters, though denied any deal. Atkins added Jenrick had a “really interesting story to tell about younger generations” when housing secretary, though would not be drawn on specifics.
Across the despatch box: Fellow contender Kemi Badenoch uses the weekend papers to take the fight to Labour, saying — in a Sun on Sunday op-ed — that the government “gave in to the mob and threw U.K. interests under the bus” by suspending some arms sales to Israel. In a Sunday Telegraph op-ed the shadow housing secretary was equally strident about net zero, arguing it has “made dependency worse” on China. Expect these topics to become talking points at Tory conference.
Cross party: Where Badenoch is more conciliatory is on building safety after the Grenfell Tower report, saying she will work with the government to ensure the recommendations are implemented, the Sunday Express says. “Justice delayed is justice denied,” Badenoch argues, calling for criminal charges against those who cut corners.
Briefing wars: The weekend papers prove rows at the top of politics aren’t just limited to Labour. The Sunday Times says Badenoch’s team have written to 1922 Committee Chair Bob Blackman complaining about the “consistent personal attacks” from Jenrick’s aides, while Jenrick’s team are sending a similar letter about Badenoch’s behavior … Saturday’s i cited a Tory “source” saying Jenrick is “winding everyone up” and “triangulating on everything” … and the Observer reports third placed James Cleverly is wooing supporters of Mel Stride and Tugendhat as the party’s true “unification” figure.
Grab the popcorn: The Tories’ annual conference later this month will be built around speeches from the four leadership contenders. However, the most eye opening remarks might come from elsewhere. The Sunday Mirror notes the party is considering letting members make speeches from the main stage during policy debates. “They’ve gone mad,” said one Tory “source.” “It’s going to be wild.”
Waiting in the wings: Of course, eager to usurp any future Tory leader is Reform UK, whose Chair Zia Yusuf tells the Sunday Times the party aims to win councils on the path to government, and has received 3,000 applications for 2,300 seats. “We’re starting up an in-house vetting team to be able to assess those people,” Yusuf said. History would suggest they may have their work cut out.
BRIGHTON DAYS AHEAD? Britain’s trade union chiefs arrive at the TUC Congress today on a high — once again they can enjoy access and influence in Whitehall. But there will also be public sticking points with the new government, and not just from the left-most flank, writes Playbook’s Dan Bloom.
Net zero sum game: There’s a debate between the unions over climate policy, with left-wing Unite and Starmer friendly GMB joining forces on Monday to call for a U-turn on Labour’s ban on new oil and gas licenses in the North Sea. Yet the civil service union PCS has a more campaigny motion on Tuesday calling for no new fossil fuel sites. Which is fine for a union that doesn’t represent the oil workers, one official notes drily.
Money money money: Another big story will be pay deals and the upcoming budget. A Unite motion demanding a wealth tax on the richest 1 percent, which could fund a 10 percent public sector pay rise, is due Monday afternoon (General Secretary Sharon Graham is interviewed about this in the Sunday Mirror). Others in the movement insist their focus is more on wider issues like workload and the impact of AI, which has a series of motions devoted to it on Tuesday.
And bubbling in the background … will be union officials strenuously lobbying to ensure Labour’s plans to reform workers’ rights are not watered down. Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds is consulting with business groups and unions alike ahead of a self-imposed Oct. 13 deadline to publish legislation. Reynolds lauded the benefits of working from home in his first interview since taking office, telling the Sunday Telegraph employees do their best work when they are “happy at home.”
Proof in the pudding: His remarks follow a front page story in Saturday’s Times suggesting that staff could take their bosses to employment tribunals if they’re made to work too hard, giving them longer to bring claims. This might not necessarily go down terribly with business leaders, although IPPR/TUC polling in the Guardian found 68 percent of the public agree workers’ rights should be strengthened.
All comrades here! TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak said this morning that we “need an economy that works for all — where the gains of growth are fairly shared and where no one misses out on basic protections at work.”
TAKING FLIGHT: Keir Starmer meets Joe Biden at the White House on Friday for the first time since the U.S. President pulled out of running for re-election. The bilateral meeting is likely to include Democrat nominee (and U.S. Vice President) Kamala Harris. Starmer said the situation in Ukraine was “becoming ever more pressing” and would be the key topic for discussion, along with the Middle East. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken meanwhile travels to London Monday and Tuesday in the most senior visit by a U.S. official since Labour won power.
Winning here: Starmer’s former pollster Deborah Mattinson will meet Harris’ team this week (as first reported by my colleagues Esther Webber and Stefan Boscia) to brief them on how to beat Donald Trump. In advance of that, Mattinson has penned an Observer op-ed with Starmer’s former Director of Policy Claire Ainsley about the need to focus on so-called hero voters – people who switched from Tory to Labour within a pool of “squeezed working-class voters who wanted change.”
BRUSSELS BARMY: Starmer’s efforts to reset relations with France and Germany rather than directly with Brussels have gone down badly in the EU capital according to the Mail on Sunday. One diplomat close to the negotiators tells the paper: “The EU hates the idea of separate little deals because it would damage the EU project. It’s all or nothing for them.”
PROSCRIPTION PLEA: Downing Street will review the case for proscribing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Sunday Telegraph says, with government figures aiming to take more action against Iran. The Sun on Sunday hears the same, with Labour MP and NEC member Luke Akehurst saying the IRGC poses a “threat to British interests in the Middle East and potentially a security threat here in the U.K.”
SPEAKING OUT: Two former Cabinet ministers, Michael Gove and Grant Shapps, write Sunday Times op-eds on Grenfell and Ukraine respectively. Gove says his efforts as leveling-up secretary to restrict the imports of company products who were involved with Grenfell Tower “ran up against the commercial purism of Treasury Mandarin Brain.” Ex-Defense Secretary Shapps meanwhile calls for the approval of long range weapons into Russia, arguing it’s “time to stop asking President Zelenskyy’s brave population to fight with one arm tied behind their backs.”
ONE CONFERENCE DOWN: The Green Party wraps up its conference in Manchester this afternoon. POLITICO’s energy and climate PRO reporter Abby Wallace was at the three-day spectacle, and reports it was dominated by Green leaders gunning for the Labour government from the left … attempting to woo parliament’s gaggle of independent MPs … and praising the party’s summer election success, where it quadrupled its number of seats. 
Jubilant and … bleak? Green Party bigwigs spent much of the weekend heaping praise on members for the successes at this summer’s election, where Greens chipped away (a little) at Labour’s landslide majority by leaning into a swathe of left-leaning issues. “The mood is entirely jubilant,” said Deputy Leader Zack Polanksi, before adding: “Whilst we’re both celebrating, the country is in a mess and this Labour government really needs holding to account.”
Green tent: The party also spent time talking up its willingness to work with independent MPs on areas they agree on. Polanski — who is also a member of the London Assembly — said that suspended Labour MP Zarah Sultana had been treated “really badly by the Labour party” and would be “very welcome” to join the Greens, but ruled out a formal deal with the new “Independent Alliance” led by independent MP and former Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn. 
GETHING OUTTA HERE: Former Welsh First Minister Vaughan Gething will not seek a role in the new Welsh government and intends to stand down at the next Senedd elections in 2026. He wrote on X that he looks forward to “working on issues where I can help further the causes of social justice.”
FACING QUESTIONS: The Observer has been digging into Boris Johnson’s latest business dealings, and the story is well worth a look considering some of the characters involved. Johnson did not respond to an inquiry from the paper.
DIANE’S DECISION: Mother of the House Diane Abbott promoted her new book “A Woman Like Me” with a Guardian interview on Saturday, and spoke about the recent efforts to push her out as a Labour MP. She said Labour had planned a deal where “they would restore the whip [after her suspension] and then literally that day, within hours, I would stand down.” Abbott said she held out as “you don’t become Britain’s first Black woman MP because you give in to being pushed around like that.”
Each to their own: An extract from the book recounts her past relationship with Jeremy Corbyn. Apparently, his idea of “a social outing was to drive me to Highgate cemetery and proudly show me the tomb of Karl Marx.”
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Lara Spirit on Times Radio (4 p.m. to 7 p.m.): Shadow Scotland Secretary John Lamont … Labour MP Marie Tidball … Shadow Paymaster General John Glen … Lib Dem MP Anna Sabine … Green Deputy Leader Zack Polanski.
Westminster Hour (BBC Radio 4, 10 p.m.):  Labour MP Paul Waugh … Tory peer Tina Stowell … Social Market Foundation Director Theo Bertram … the FT’s Lucy Fisher.
MONDAY
COMMONS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with education questions and the consideration of motions including Russian and Syrian sanctions.
LORDS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with the introduction of Labour peer John Cryer and Tory peer Alok Sharma before peers debate the Budgetary Responsibility Bill.
MONEY: The Resolution Foundation holds a conference about savings policy with speakers including former Pensions Minister Ros Altmann, starting 10 a.m.
INQUIRY: Public hearings for module three of the Covid-19 inquiry commence looking at the pandemic’s impact on healthcare systems in all four nations of the U.K., 10.30 a.m.
CONFERENCE: TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak delivers his keynote address at the TUC conference in Brighton.
COMMITTEES: Nominations for select committee chairs close, 4 p.m.
TORIES: Leadership hustings for Tory MPs, 4 p.m.
LABOUR: Chancellor Rachel Reeves addresses the Parliamentary Labour Party meeting.
TUESDAY
COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with justice questions and a motion on winter fuel payments before a Tory opposition day debate.
LORDS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with the introduction of Crossbench peer Minette Batters and Labour peer Harriet Harman before peers debate the Lords Spiritual (Women) Act 2015 (Extension) Bill.
CONFERENCE: Prime Minister Keir Starmer widely expected to address the TUC conference (as reported in Playbook Friday).
CRIME: First prisoners released under the government’s Early Release Scheme.
STATS: ONS earnings, employment and labor market data released which could calculate next year’s state pension, 7 a.m.
PANEL: The Resolution Foundation holds an event looking at Reeves’ options ahead of the budget with speakers including former Treasury Permanent Secretary Nick Macpherson, 9.30 a.m.
INQUIRY: Public hearings begin at the Thirlwall Inquiry examining the actions of Lucy Letby, 10 a.m.
EDUCATION: The Sutton Trust hosts an event launching the OECD’s Education at a Glance report with a speech from Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, 10.15 a.m.
COURT: Former DUP Leader Jeffrey Donaldson appears at Newry Crown Court, 10.30 a.m.
MEDIA: BBC Director General Tim Davie and Chair Samir Shah give evidence to the Lords’ Communications and Digital Committee about the BBC’s work, 2.30 p.m.
TORIES: Results from the second ballot of Tory MPs whittling leadership contenders from five to four, 5 p.m.
WEDNESDAY
AMERICA: Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump take part in a presidential debate on ABC News in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2 a.m. U.K. time.
COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with Wales questions and PMQs at noon before a debate on building safety resilience.
LORDS: Sits from 3 p.m. with the introduction of Labour peer Kevan Jones and Tory peer Chris Grayling before peers debate the Arbitration Bill and the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association and International Committee of the Red Cross (Status) Bill.
STATS: GDP data for July published, 7 a.m.
COMMITTEES: Election of select committee chairs by all MPs.
PANEL: The IPPR has an event about how government can deliver for people with panelists including Labour MP Josh Simons and former Leveling-Up Secretary Michael Gove.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS: Chatham House hosts an in-conversation session with International Rescue Committee President and former Foreign Secretary David Miliband about tackling the climate crisis, extreme poverty and conflict, 5 p.m.
THURSDAY
COMMONS: Sits from 9.30 a.m. with DEFRA and Solicitor General questions followed by Commons Leader Lucy Powell’s business statement and a general debate.
LORDS: Sits from 11 a.m. with the introduction of Tory peers Theresa May and Liam Booth-Smith before peers debate pedal cycles and higher education funding.
ECONOMY: The OBR publishes its fiscal risks and sustainability report.
HEALTH: Review into the NHS’ performance by unaffiliated peer Ara Darzi published.
TECH: Chatham House holds an in-conversation session with Meta Global Affairs President and former Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg about the tension between democracy and technology, 3 p.m.
FRIDAY
COMMONS: In recess until Oct. 7.
LORDS: Sits from 10 a.m. with a debate on the situation in Sudan.
AMERICA: Keir Starmer visits the White House to meet U.S. President Joe Biden.
SATURDAY
CONFERENCE: The Liberal Democrats’ conference kicks off in Brighton until Sept. 17.
NORTHERN IRELAND: Mike Nesbitt officially becomes Ulster Unionist Party leader unopposed having served from 2012 to 2017.
Writing Monday morning Playbook: Sam Blewett.
Thanks: To Jack Blanchard for giving Crunch some Sunday sparkle.
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